Market analysis

Date: Monday 7th of September 2026

EUR/USD : ECB to hike as Trump pushes for lower US rates .

GBP/USD : Edges higher against US Dollar, UK Chancellor Healey’s speech eye .

USD/JPY : Yen’s changing fortunes might finally be spooking the bears .

Dow Jones : Ends lower as solid jobs data fuels hawkish Fed bets .

Gold : Fed uncertainty caps the upside .

Crude Oil : S oars for the week, hits three-month high on U.S.-Iran military escalation .

EUR/USD

ECB to hike as Trump pushes for lower US rates

The EUR/USD pair posted a modest comeback after falling in the last week of August, finishing the week just above the 1.1600 level. The US Dollar (USD) lost momentum and recovered on Monday, but overall, it retained its recently regained strength amid persistent Middle East tensions and speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have to raise the benchmark interest rate in September. The USD resumed its advance on Friday, as upbeat employment data brought back demand. United States employment and inflation In between, the Greenback suffered a minor setback: Fed Governor Christopher Waller cooled the odds for a September rate hike on Thursday by saying that officials can “wait one meeting,” if there are no surprises from upcoming inflation data. He also noted that a 25-basis-point (bps) hike won’t bring inflation back to 2%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the August Consumer Price Index CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the same month in the upcoming days. Indeed, the CPI may not be the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, but it's a reliable indicator of inflationary pressures and may define whether the Fed will hike or hold when it meets later this month. The United States (US) published the August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, with upbeat figures backing the USD. The country added 162K new jobs in the month, much better than the anticipated 56K. The Unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% as expected. Furthermore, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, declined to 3.1% from 3.2%. Other than that, the country published the August ISM Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). The manufacturing index eased to 54.6 from 55.6 in July, while the Services PMI improved to 55.4 from 54.1 in the previous month. Within the manufacturing sector, inflation held steady as the Prices Paid Index printed at 71.1, matching the previous monthly reading. On services output, the Prices Paid Index edged higher to 72.6 from 70.3. A reading above 50 means that more businesses are paying higher prices than in the previous month, meaning inflationary pressures are being felt up and down across all businesses . So, while Fed Governor Waller hinting at an on-hold September decision temporarily took its toll on the USD, the fact is that inflationary pressures are high enough for speculative interest to price in upcoming hikes. Rising energy prices amid the Middle East war are no doubt the main factor driving market concerns, with Crude Oil Prices regaining positive momentum after the US and Iran resumed hostilities in late August. European Central Bank and Eurozone inflation Inflation is not a problem exclusive to the US. Germany reported that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.9% YoY in August, according to preliminary estimates, higher than the previous 2.8% although better than the expected 3.1%. Furthermore, Retail Sales in the country fell 3.4% in July, worsening from a flat reading in July. The Eurozone HICP in the same period printed at 3.3% as expected, rising from the 2.9% posted in July. The situation is similar; what’s different is how central banks are reacting to the news: the European Central Bank (ECB) has already hiked interest rates by 25 bps and is expected to deliver a similar rate increase when it meets on Wednesday. The move is largely priced in, which means the impact on the Euro could be limited. The ECB faces yet another challenge: President Christine Lagarde, whose term as the ECB head ends in October 2027, may be due to an early exit. Market talks suggest she would step down before France’s Presidential elections either to participate in them or to allow President Emmanuel Macron to have a voice on Lagarde’s successor at the central bank. Lagarde refrained from confirming or denying such rumors but left the door open for an early departure. Other than the ECB decision, the European macroeconomic calendar will include the final estimates of the German and Eurozone HICP. There’s yet another factor pushing central banks to raise rates. Government bond yields are on the loose amid inflation-related concerns and geopolitical tensions. Higher borrowing costs affect the country’s economy and add to the inflationary process. Central banks’ tools may not be enough to tame the chaos, but inaction from policymakers will make the picture even worse.

By the end of the week, however, US President Donald Trump, once again called for lower rates: “The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart - BE PATRIOTS for a change. High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won’t allow that to happen!” he posted on Truth Social, also threatening to stop trade with countries with higher rates. Indeed, President Trump’s desire for lower rates is probably the main reason why Chair Kevin Warsh has refrained from hiking rates despite pledging multiple times to fight inflation. Fed is between a rock and a hard place.

Source : https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-ecb-to-hike-as-trump-pushes-for-lower-us-rates-202609041457

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

Edges higher against US Dollar, UK Chancellor Healey’s speech eyed

The British Pound (GBP) ticks up to around 1.3525 against the US Dollar as the latter edges lower. The US Dollar struggles to capitalize on stronger-than-expected US NFP data. Investors await UK Chancellor Healey’s speech, likely to be related to the budget announcement next month. The British Pound (GBP) is marginally higher at around 1.3525 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair ticks up as the US Dollar struggles to attract bids despite the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) posting strong Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures for August. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades subduedly near 99.10, but remains inside Friday’s trading range. The data showed on Friday that the economy created 162K fresh jobs, significantly higher than 56K estimates. July’s NFP data was also revised higher to 21K from -23K. Upbeat US NFP data has also led to a slight increase in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations. Fed hike odds rise on strong US jobs data Analysts at Commerzbank note that the “main theme last Friday was a stronger-than-expected US employment report, which revived expectations for a September Fed rate hike.” They highlight that “the Fed funds futures increased the probability of a 25bp hike on 16 September to 62% compared with 51% before the employment report Meanwhile, investors shift their focus to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, which will be published on Friday. Ahead of the US CPI data, Fed board members New York Fed Bank President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller have signaled that recent data on inflation has been “encouraging” and inflation expectations are contained. On the British currency front, investors await speech from United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey, which will take place during the day, where he is expected to talk about the state of the economy ahead of next month's Budget, according to BBC News. The note released by strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) indicates that remarks from UK Chancellor Healey are expected to revolve around raising taxes and reducing expenditure, in a way to highlight growing fiscal risks.UK fiscal buffer drive points to tax rises and spending cuts BBH said in a note that UK Chancellor John Healey has pledged to build a solid fiscal “buffer against uncertainty” in the October 28 Budget, a commitment they argue will almost inevitably entail a tighter policy mix. BBH highlights that this objective “points to a mix of tax rises and spending cuts” as higher borrowing costs are estimated to have halved the government’s fiscal headroom to around “£12bn,” underscoring the limited room for maneuver on the public finances.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-edges-higher-against-us-dollar-uk-chancellor-healeys-speech-eyed-202609070805

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

Yen’s changing fortunes might finally be spooking the bears

Six weeks after hitting a four-decade low against the dollar, the tide appears to be turning for the battered yen as a host of factors finally smoke out traders who have spent years betting against the Japanese currency. While central bank rate hikes and record currency intervention have failed to provide lasting support for the yen, new tailwinds from capital repatriation, unwinding carry trades and U.S. political pressure are now giving short speculators cause to rethink their long-term game. The yen is on track for a roughly 2% surge against the greenback this week — the most since a rare joint U.S. and Japan intervention at the end of July to lift the yen. “The market psychology around the yen appears to be changing," said Rong Ren Goh, a fixed income portfolio manager at East Spring Investments. "Investors seem increasingly reluctant to aggressively short the JPY (yen), particularly with the prospect of a BOJ rate hike in September adding another layer of risk to the trade. “The Bank of Japan is expected to lift its key rate by 25 basis points (bps) this month and markets are also contemplating the possibility of a 50-bps hike or a series of rapid increases in coming months. Nevertheless, a 50-bps September hike is still seen as extremely unlikely, particularly under Governor Kazuo Ueda’s cautious leadership. All the same, the shift in mood is backed up by money flows. Data from Citigroup indicate positioning on the yen has flipped from bearish to bullish since the start of August, with interbank flow data showing leveraged funds, banks and real-money investors all net-buying yen this week. The convergence of central bank policy, investment flows and speculative positioning is adding to volatility. The yen is also up almost 2% against the euro and Australian dollar this week. Stephen Jen, CEO and co-CIO of Eurizon SLJ Asset Management, said the risk of a rapid unwind of yen-based carry trades is rising, in a similar way to 1998 when the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management forced banks to hedge funds to rapidly deleverage. The yen has long been the favored currency for the carry trade, where investors borrow cheaply in yen to invest elsewhere. “When a currency is so extremely undervalued, and positioning is so extended, movements like this one will occur increasingly frequently before a big move," Jen said. "It’s a bit like earthquakes. The tectonic plates are grating on each other with great forces. “INTERVENTIONS AND THE FED . The yen’s years-long weakening trend accelerated this year as fiscal concerns mounted around stimulus plans by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaishi and a strong belief that the BOJ was "behind the curve" in tightening monetary policy. Tokyo unleashed record solo intervention in April-May when the yen weakened beyond the 160 per dollar line. But a key moment came in July-August when Tokyo was joined by Washington in a rare bout of coordinated action after the currency weakened to 163.99, a level not seen since 1986.U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has long believed rate hikes were the right medicine for the weak yen, and he pressed the BOJ at a Group of 20 finance chiefs meeting this week. That was followed by a speech by BOJ board member Hajime Takata, the sole dissenter to a July decision to keep rates steady, who raised the specter of 50-bps moves or hikes in quicker succession. "His (Takata’s) remarks about consecutive rate hikes and sharper margins were dramatic," said Yoshio Iguchi, chief strategy officer at Traders Securities. "If this becomes consensus, it could be a game changer for the yen. “Odds are now 97% that the BOJ will raise its key rate by 25 bps to 1.25%, according to Tokyo Tanshi data, up from 52% a month ago. The figures show a 27% chance of a rate increase in October and 56% odds in December. Meanwhile, there are signs a sudden lurch higher in Japanese government bond yields to historic levels is compelling domestic institutional investors to repatriate money. Global markets shuddered in July when Japan floated the possibility of a pivot by its $1.8 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund back into domestic assets. Official data show Japanese investors are shedding foreign bonds at the fastest pace in four years. “The immediate story behind the yen’s gain is the suggestion that the BOJ could raise more than expected, and that seemed to catch everybody’s attention," said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager at State Street in Tokyo. “But if you take it a step back further, the biggest single factor is the possibility that Japanese investors are more inclined to invest domestically, including liquidating overseas assets. “Real money short underweight positions on the yen are at the highest in five years according to State Street’s proprietary data, Wakabayashi said, setting the scene for a potential "reversion" to neutral or overweight levels. The Federal Reserve is another component. Traders trimmed U.S. rate hike bets this month after dovish comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, giving the BOJ a chance to narrow a rate gap that has been a major factor in yen weakness. The shrinking advantage of overseas rates will also be able to unwind yen carry trades. A reversal of short bets could have a dramatic effect. JPMorgan estimates that since Prime Minister Takaishi took office last October, yen shorts have accumulated up to around 17 trillion yen ($109 billion)."If this position were to be fully unwound, USD/JPY could fall to the 142–146 range," JPMorgan analysts Junya Tanase and Ikue Saito wrote in a note.

Source: https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/yens-changing-fortunes-might-finally-be-spooking-the-bears-4890347

USD/JPY

Dow Jones

Ends lower as solid jobs data fuels hawkish Fed bets

Wall Street dipped on Friday as a robust jobs report raised the probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will increase its key interest rate at this month’s monetary policy meeting. All three major U.S. indexes closed lower amid a broad selloff ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. For the week, the indexes were essentially unchanged. The Labor Department’s August employment report showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs last month, nearly three times the 56,000 consensuses, while the department revised June and July payrolls upward by a total of 55,000 jobs. Labor market participation increased while the unemployment rate held firm at 4.1%. While a stronger-than-expected jobs report would generally be good economic news, markets are interpreting it as a sign the data-dependent Fed will implement a rate hike at the conclusion of this month’s policy meeting to curb war-related energy price pressures from morphing into broader, more systemic inflation. “The labor market had a nice snapback last month, and it’s hard not to think an improving labor market is not a positive development for the economy," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, Nebraska. "On the flip side, the odds of a Fed hike increased a little bit as the economy continues to run a little on the hot side. “We’ll get a lot more clarity on inflation next week at the consumer and producer levels," Detrick added, referring to the Labor Department’s consumer and producer price indexes. Financial markets are pricing in a 58.4% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting, up from 49.4% on Thursday, according to CME’s Fed Watch tool. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 272.51 points, or 0.51%, to 53,413.60, the S&P 500 lost 29.30 points, or 0.38%, to 7,718.41 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 77.07 points, or 0.29%, to 26,506.99. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, consumer discretionary stocks were down the most, while industrials and tech showed modest gains. Semiconductors were clear outperformers, gaining 3.4%, but remaining down 17.8% this quarter. Software and services, having gained 24% over the same period, were clear laggards on the day, dropping 2.1%.

Source : https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/nasdaq-sp-500-futures-climb-ahead-of-key-jobs-report-4889040

Dow Jones

Gold

Fed uncertainty caps the upside

After declining sharply in the first half of the week, Gold (XAU/USD) managed to erase its losses, reflecting the changes in the market pricing of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) possible interest rate decision at the next meeting. Investors will scrutinize August inflation data from the United States (US), while the precious metal’s near-term technical outlook suggests that sellers remain hesitant. Gold recovers as investors struggle to decide on the Fed’s next move . Gold remained under bearish pressure in the first half of the week as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium revived expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Meanwhile, the deepening crisis in the Middle East further weighed on the yellow metal and dragged it to its lowest level since early August, below $4,300 by early Wednesday. The US and Iran exchanged military strikes for the first time in weeks over the weekend. The US forces attacked two rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island, and Iran has targeted US bases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in response. During the American trading hours on Tuesday, news of the US military carrying out strikes that Tehran claimed killed civilians pointed to a further escalation of the military conflict. Following the attack, US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran “will be hit again at a much harder and higher level, but it will not be the biggest attack of them all, that is waiting in the wings.” In response, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it attacked two US military bases in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In the second half of the day on Wednesday, XAU/USD gathered recovery momentum and closed the day in positive territory. The weaker-than-expected private sector employment data from the US weighed on the US Dollar (USD), while a sharp decline seen in the USD/JPY pair hinted at a possible currency market intervention. The USD came under renewed selling pressure on Thursday and allowed XAU/USD to extend its rebound into a second consecutive day. Fed Governor Christopher Waller adopted a cautious stance on policy tightening and caused the USD to lose interest. The key remark that Waller is inclined to support holding the policy rate steady in September if August inflation shows continued progress but would consider a hike if the data come in hot, underscored a finely balanced, data-dependent reaction function that suggests a rate hike at the next meeting is not a done deal. His acknowledgment of “finally” seeing disinflation alongside still-elevated inflation, and a low tolerance for renewed price pressures, further reaffirmed his reluctance on a possible rate hike. Following Waller’s speech, the CME Fed Watch Tool’s probability of a 25-basis points rate hike at the upcoming meeting declined to 50% from about 63% earlier in the week. In turn, Gold climbed above $4,500 late Thursday, erasing its weekly losses in the process. Commenting on Gold’s price action, analysts at OCBC noted that Gold “rose more than 2% towards $4,510 intra-session high as Waller’s comments prompted markets to pare September Fed hike expectations, pulling UST yields and the USD lower.” They note that this latest move “partly reverses the sharp sell-off earlier in the week, when Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and the rise in global yields had weighed on precious metals.” OCBC adds that “geopolitical tensions remain supportive at the margin, though higher Oil prices are a two-sided risk if they feed back into inflation expectations and yields.” The data from the US showed on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 162K in August. This print surpassed the market expectation for an increase of 56K by a wide margin and boosted the USD with immediate reaction. Other details of the report showed that the total Nonfarm Payroll employment for June and July was revised up by 11K and 44K, respectively, while the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. Following the impressive labor market report, Gold failed to build on its recovery heading into the weekend. Gold investors await critical US inflation report The Fed will be in the blackout period until the September 15-16 policy meeting. Hence, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday will be the final, and arguably the most important, clue on whether the US central bank will opt for a rate hike. Fed Governor Waller said that “continued progress toward our 2% goal” is needed for him to vote in favor of a policy hold and explained that his decision will be “influenced by what we learn about August inflation." Although the 2% goal Waller mentioned relates to the annual core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a reading below July’s 0.2% in the monthly core CPI could be seen as a confirmation of “progress” and trigger a USD selloff with the immediate reaction. In this scenario, XAU/USD is likely to gather bullish momentum heading into the Fed meeting. Conversely, a monthly core CPI reading at or above 0.2% could feed into expectations for a rate hike and weigh heavily on Gold. In short, Gold is facing a two-way risk with the US inflation data due on Friday, given markets currently see the odds of a rate hike at about 60%, thanks to the strong August jobs data.

According to strategists at TD Securities, the backdrop for bullion has become more supportive, with the bank emphasizing that “we do not anticipate material downside for the yellow metal as the landscape for precious metals has improved amid a renewed Dollar debasement theme, while Fed hikes remain far from certain.” This combination of a softer US Dollar narrative and lingering uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path is seen as helping to anchor gold prices despite recent volatility.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-weekly-forecast-fed-uncertainty-caps-the-upside-202609041440

GOLD

Crude Oil

Soars for the week, hits three-month high on U.S.-Iran military escalation

Oil prices on Friday posted their best week since mid-to-late July, as military action erupted between the U.S. and Iran for the first time in weeks and heightened concerns over persistent supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Notably, at home, U.S. diesel prices touched a record high. Brent crude futures expiring in November, the global benchmark, soared 8.8% for the week to settle at $95.85 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures expiring in October surged 9.4% to settle at $91.22 a barrel. Both contracts sit at their highest levels in roughly three months. Bessent says EU ’officially’ part of Operation Economic Outcast U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday evening said the European Union had "officially joined" an operation spearheaded by Washington to economically squeeze Iran. “The world is sending a clear message to the Iranian regime: We will not stop until every remaining financial lifeline has been severed," Bessent posted on social media. He pointed to an August 31 statement from the European Commission which said the EU had "adopted extensive sanctions to prevent Iran from exploiting the global economy and financial system" and remained ready to "take further measures. “While the U.S. had recently appeared to shift to a strategy of economic warfare against Iran following an extended impasse over control of the Strait of Hormuz, this week was highlighted by a resurgence in military action between Washington and Tehran for the first time since July. Both sides traded tit-for-tat strikes, though President Donald Trump told reporters this week that the latest flare up in kinetic action would not last "too long." The U.S. leader said American strikes had targeted infrastructure that Iran had been rebuilding around the strait, while Iranian state media said Tehran had retaliated with attacks on U.S. military bases in regional countries. “Escalation is propping up crude, but the rally may lose traction if Hormuz shipments keep moving smoothly," ING analysts said in a note. Diesel prices eclipse 2022 record to hit new all-time high At home, the rise in global oil prices were making their mark felt at the pump. According to GasBuddy, the national average price of diesel reached a new record high of $5.85 a gallon, topping the previous benchmark of $5.82 a gallon set in June 2022. Meanwhile, according to AAA, the national average price of gas stood at $4.1474 a gallon, up from $4.1436 a day ago. “Diesel is the fuel that moves the economy, and when diesel prices reach record levels, the impact extends far beyond the transportation sector. Higher diesel prices impact consumers as rising supply chain costs increase the price of groceries, household goods, deliveries, and countless other products Americans rely on every day,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a statement . U.S. Vice President JD Vance on Thursday told reporters that gas prices were high because Iran kept shooting at commercial ships. "We can accept the Iranians are going to shoot at ships like crazy people, and we’re going to do what we have to do in order to ensure that their efforts don’t lead to a worldwide energy crisis. Now, we’ve been quite successful up to this point. Gas, frankly, could have been much, much higher were it not for our efforts. But I’m not going to make a promise about when it’s going to return to $3," the U.S. vice president had said. “Major combat operations are currently not ongoing, and they haven’t been ongoing in a very long time. In fact, what we did just a couple of days ago, is that we made it harder for the Iranians to shoot at commercial shipping, again, in order to ensure the flow of oil and gas into world energy markets," he added, referring to U.S. strikes on Tuesday. Oil is also being supported by signs of tighter inventories. U.S. commercial crude stocks fell to about 424.5 million barrels in the week ended August 28, down from 428.9 million barrels a week earlier, according to the Energy Information Administration. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at about 286.6 million barrels.

Supply policy from OPEC+ will also be in focus. The group is expected to keep its October oil output policy unchanged when it meets on Sunday, Reuters reported, citing sources. The meeting comes as the producer group completes the unwinding of one layer of production cuts, although disruptions through Hormuz have reduced the impact of its production decisions on prices.

Source : https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-heads-for-sharp-weekly-gains-on-escalating-usiran-tensions-4888752

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MAJOR DATA RELEASED DURING LAST WEEK

MAJOR DATA COMING OUT THIS WEEK (Time zone GMT+3)

Disclaimer

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD):

MACD uses different exponential moving averages to generate buy and sell indicators. The lower pane of the chart shows two lines: a Differential Line and a Signal Line. The Differential Line is the difference between a short and long-period exponential moving average, typically 12 and 26 periods. The Signal Line is typically a 9-period exponential moving average. When the DL crosses the SL from above, a sell indicator is generated, and when it crosses from below a buy signal is generated.

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

This is a momentum indicator that measures a security's price in relation to itself. The lower pane of the chart shows a line that fluctuates on a scale of 0 to 100. Typically buy signals are generated at 30 and sell signals are generated at 70. If the line breaks 30, the security is oversold, and a reversal is imminent. If the line breaks 70, it is overbought and is due for a downward correction.

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