Market analysis

Date: Monday 13th of July 2026

EUR/USD : Market players await fresh clues .

GBP/USD : R emains subdued as US-Iran tensions lift US Dollar .

USD/JPY : Holds gains near 162.00 as USD gains on fresh US-Iran tensions .

Dow Jones : Ends higher as investors turn to earnings season .

Gold : Renewed Middle East tensions scare bulls away .

Crude Oil : Surge as US-Iran conflict keeps Hormuz supply fears alive .

EUR/USD

Market players await fresh clues.

EURUSD experienced a volatile trading week as investors balanced stronger U.S. economic data against persistent concerns about the Eurozone’s economic recovery. The pair traded within a relatively broad range, reacting to inflation expectations, central bank commentary, and shifts in global risk sentiment. Although the euro managed to recover during several sessions, the U.S. dollar maintained a modest advantage, preventing a sustained bullish breakout in the currency pair. The primary driver behind last week’s price action was the continued resilience of the U.S. economy. Employment figures, consumer spending data, and business activity indicators all pointed to ongoing economic strength despite elevated interest rates. As a result, investors reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting U.S. Treasury yields and increasing demand for the dollar. Federal Reserve officials also reiterated that monetary policy decisions would remain data-dependent, reinforcing the view that interest rates may stay restrictive for longer than previously anticipated. Meanwhile, the euro faced pressure from mixed economic signals within the Eurozone. Manufacturing activity remained weak in several major economies, particularly Germany, while growth expectations continued to soften. Although the services sector showed some resilience, it was not sufficient to generate strong bullish momentum for the single currency. Investors also remained cautious ahead of upcoming inflation data and European Central Bank commentary, which could influence expectations for future monetary policy decisions. Geopolitical developments and broader market sentiment also influenced trading activity throughout the week. During periods of market uncertainty, investors increased exposure to safe-haven assets, strengthening the U.S. dollar and weighing on EUR/USD. Conversely, improvements in risk appetite allowed the pair to recover temporarily, though rallies were generally capped near important technical resistance levels. From a technical perspective, EURUSD remained within a medium-term consolidation range. Buyers defended key support levels near the lower end of the range, while sellers emerged near resistance zones to limit upside momentum. The pair’s inability to establish a decisive breakout reflected continued uncertainty regarding the next major move in both Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy. By the end of the week, EUR/USD closed with a slightly bearish tone as stronger U.S. fundamentals and relatively higher interest rate expectations continued to support the dollar. Overall, last week’s trading highlighted the ongoing divergence between the resilient U.S. economy and the slower-growing Eurozone, leaving the pair sensitive to upcoming economic releases and central bank signals . Looking ahead, EUR/USD is expected to remain highly sensitive to economic data, central bank communication, and changes in global market sentiment. This week’s economic calendar includes several high-impact releases that could significantly influence expectations for monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic. In the United States, investors will closely monitor inflation data, retail sales figures, employment-related indicators, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. If incoming data continues to demonstrate economic resilience, expectations for higher interest rates over a longer period could strengthen further, supporting the U.S. dollar and potentially pushing EUR/USD lower. Rising Treasury yields would likely reinforce this bearish pressure on the pair. Conversely, weaker U.S. data could encourage markets to price in earlier Federal Reserve easing. A softer inflation environment, slowing employment growth, or weaker consumer spending would reduce demand for the dollar and create room for a euro recovery toward higher resistance levels.

The overall outlook for EURUSD this week is neutral to slightly bearish. The U.S. dollar continues to benefit from stronger economic performance, relatively higher interest rates, and resilient Treasury yields, while the euro remains dependent on improving Eurozone data and European Central Bank policy signals. If U.S. economic indicators remain strong and inflation proves persistent, EUR/USD could face renewed downside pressure toward lower support levels. However, weaker U.S. data or unexpectedly hawkish ECB commentary could shift momentum back in favor of the euro and allow the pair to test higher resistance zones. Traders should prepare for elevated volatility throughout the week as major economic releases and central bank speeches are likely to influence market direction. Careful risk management and close monitoring of key technical levels will be essential as EURUSD searches for its next decisive breakout .

Source : https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-market-players-await-fresh-clues-202607101612

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

Remains subdued as US-Iran tensions lift US Dollar.

GBPUSD traded in a volatile range last week as investors balanced resilient U.S. economic data against mixed signals from the UK economy. The British pound initially found support from stable domestic inflation expectations and improving business activity, but continued strength in the U.S. dollar ultimately limited the pair’s upside momentum. As a result, GBP/USD spent most of the week consolidating within a broad trading range while traders awaited clearer guidance from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The U.S. dollar remained supported by strong economic fundamentals. Labor market data, consumer spending figures, and services-sector activity continued to point to a resilient U.S. economy despite elevated interest rates. This reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer, pushing Treasury yields higher and attracting demand for dollar-denominated assets. Federal Reserve officials also maintained a cautious tone, emphasizing that future policy decisions would remain dependent on incoming economic data. On the UK side, the pound received mixed support from domestic economic releases. While inflation continued to moderate gradually, it remained above the Bank of England’s long-term target, leaving policymakers cautious about cutting rates too aggressively. Business confidence indicators showed some improvement, but concerns about slowing economic growth and weaker consumer demand prevented sterling from gaining strong bullish momentum. Investor sentiment shifted several times during the week as global markets reacted to geopolitical developments, bond yield movements, and equity market performance. During periods of increased uncertainty, investors moved toward safe-haven assets, strengthening the U.S. dollar and pressuring GBP/USD lower. Conversely, improved risk appetite allowed the pair to recover temporarily, although rallies were generally capped near key resistance levels. From a technical perspective, GBP/USD remained within a medium-term consolidation range. Buyers defended important support levels during pullbacks, while sellers emerged near resistance zones to limit upward progress. The pair’s inability to break decisively in either direction reflected continued uncertainty surrounding future interest rate policies in both the United States and the United Kingdom. By the end of the week, GBPUSD closed with a slightly bearish tone as stronger U.S. fundamentals and higher Treasury yields continued to favor the dollar. Overall, last week’s trading highlighted the ongoing struggle between a relatively resilient UK economy and the stronger yield advantage currently offered by the United States . Looking ahead, GBP/USD is expected to remain highly sensitive to economic data releases, central bank commentary, and shifts in global market sentiment. This week’s economic calendar contains several high-impact events that could significantly influence expectations for both Federal Reserve and Bank of England policy. In the United States, traders will closely monitor inflation data, retail sales figures, employment-related indicators, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Stronger-than-expected data would reinforce expectations that U.S. interest rates may remain elevated for longer, supporting the dollar and potentially pushing GBPUSD lower. Rising Treasury yields would likely increase bearish pressure on the pair. Conversely, softer U.S. economic data could revive expectations for earlier Federal Reserve easing. A slowdown in inflation, weaker consumer spending, or softer labor market conditions would likely reduce demand for the dollar and create room for a sterling recovery toward higher resistance levels. In the United Kingdom, investors will focus on inflation figures, GDP-related data, labor market statistics, retail sales, and comments from Bank of England policymakers. Stronger UK data could strengthen expectations that the Bank of England will remain cautious about cutting rates, providing support for the pound. However, disappointing economic releases may increase concerns about slowing growth and weigh on sterling. The overall outlook for GBP/USD this week is neutral to slightly bearish. The U.S. dollar continues to benefit from stronger economic performance, relatively higher interest rates, and resilient Treasury yields, while the pound remains dependent on improving UK data and Bank of England policy signals. If U.S. economic indicators remain strong and inflation proves persistent, GBP/USD could face renewed downside pressure toward lower support levels. However, weaker U.S. data or unexpectedly hawkish Bank of England commentary could shift momentum back in favor of sterling and allow the pair to test higher resistance zones.

Source : https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-remains-subdued-as-us-iran-tensions-lift-us-dollar-202607130702

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

Holds gains near 162.00 as USD gains on fresh US-Iran tensions.

USDJPY experienced another active trading week as investors balanced strong U.S. economic fundamentals against expectations surrounding future Bank of Japan policy adjustments. The pair remained highly sensitive to movements in U.S. Treasury yields, central bank commentary, and overall market risk sentiment, resulting in several periods of heightened volatility. The primary driver behind last week’s price action was continued confidence in the U.S. economy. Employment data, consumer spending figures, and business activity indicators all pointed to resilient economic growth despite elevated interest rates. This reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a cautious approach toward future rate cuts, supporting Treasury yields and increasing demand for the U.S. dollar. Federal Reserve officials also contributed to market sentiment by emphasizing that inflation risks have not been fully eliminated and that future policy decisions will remain data dependent. Their cautious tone reduced expectations for aggressive monetary easing, helping the dollar maintain an advantage against most major currencies, including the Japanese yen. Meanwhile, the yen remained influenced by speculation surrounding the Bank of Japan’s next policy move. Investors closely monitored comments from Japanese officials for any indication of additional policy normalization. Although inflation and wage growth in Japan have improved compared with previous years, the Bank of Japan continued to signal that future tightening measures would likely be gradual and dependent on incoming economic data. Global risk sentiment also played an important role throughout the week. During periods of market optimism, investors favored higher-yielding assets and reduced exposure to the safe-haven yen, pushing USD/JPY higher. Conversely, occasional geopolitical concerns and financial market volatility triggered temporary yen buying, leading to brief pullbacks in the pair. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY remained within a medium-term upward trend. Buyers consistently defended key support levels during market pullbacks, while resistance near recent highs attracted profit-taking. The broader market structure remained constructive, reflecting the continued interest rate differential between the United States and Japan. By the end of the week, USD/JPY closed with a moderately bullish tone as stronger U.S. economic data and elevated Treasury yields continued to support the dollar. Overall, last week’s trading highlighted the importance of yielding differentials and central bank policy expectations in driving the pair’s direction . The overall outlook for USD/JPY this week remains moderately bullish. The U.S. dollar continues to benefit from stronger economic performance, relatively higher interest rates, and resilient Treasury yields, while the Japanese yen remains constrained by the Bank of Japan’s gradual approach to policy normalization. If U.S. economic data remains strong and Treasury yields continue rising, USD/JPY could extend its gains toward higher resistance levels. However, weaker U.S. data or unexpectedly hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan could trigger a corrective decline toward lower support zones. Traders should prepare for elevated volatility around major economic releases and central bank speeches. Careful risk management and close monitoring of Treasury yields, support and resistance levels, and geopolitical developments will be essential as USD/JPY searches for its next directional move.

Source ; https://www.fxstreet.com/currencies/usdjpy

USD/JPY

Dow Jones

Ends higher as investors turn to earnings season.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed last week with a cautiously positive tone as investors balanced resilient U.S. economic data against ongoing uncertainty surrounding inflation and Federal Reserve policy. The index experienced several periods of volatility throughout the week, reacting to economic releases, Treasury yield movements, and expectations for upcoming corporate earnings. Strong U.S. employment figures and stable consumer spending reinforced confidence in the broader economy, helping support investor sentiment. Business activity indicators also suggested that economic growth remains relatively healthy despite elevated borrowing costs. These factors encouraged buying interest across several Dow components, particularly in industrial, healthcare, and financial sectors. However, stronger economic data also increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer than previously anticipated. Comments from Fed officials emphasized that inflation has moderated but remains above the central bank’s long-term target, leading investors to adopt a more cautious stance. As Treasury yields remained firm, interest rate-sensitive sectors experienced periodic pressure. Corporate earnings expectations remained another important driver of market sentiment. Investors continued positioning ahead of the upcoming earnings season, with optimism surrounding several blue-chip companies helping to support the broader index. Technology-related components also contributed positively during periods of improving market sentiment. Global developments, including geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in commodity markets, generated occasional risk-off trading sessions. Despite these temporary pullbacks, buyers consistently returned to the market, suggesting that institutional investors continue to view declines as buying opportunities rather than signs of a major trend reversal. From a technical perspective, Dow Jones maintained its medium-term bullish structure despite periods of consolidation. The index remained above several important moving averages, while key support levels successfully absorbed selling pressure. Resistance near recent highs limited immediate upside momentum, but the broader trend remained constructive. By the end of the week, the Dow Jones finished with modest gains, supported by resilient economic fundamentals, improving investor confidence, and expectations that corporate earnings will remain relatively strong. Overall, last week’s trading demonstrated the market’s ability to absorb higher interest rate expectations while continuing to focus on economic resilience and corporate profitability . Looking ahead, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is expected to remain highly sensitive to economic data releases, corporate earnings updates, Federal Reserve communication, and movements in the bond market. This week could prove important in determining whether the index extends its recent gains or enters a deeper consolidation phase. The primary focus for investors will be the U.S. economic calendar. Upcoming inflation reports, retail sales figures, manufacturing and services data, employment-related releases, and consumer confidence indicators will all be closely monitored. Stronger-than-expected economic data would reinforce confidence in corporate earnings and economic growth but may also strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for longer. Federal Reserve commentary will remain a key market driver. Any indication that policymakers remain concerned about inflation could create short-term volatility and pressure equity valuations through higher Treasury yields. Conversely, more dovish signals suggesting increasing confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward target could improve investor sentiment and support further gains in the index. Corporate earnings will also become increasingly important. Investors will assess whether large-cap companies continue delivering strong revenue growth, healthy profit margins, and resilient consumer demand despite elevated financing costs. Positive earnings guidance from major Dow components could provide additional momentum for the index, while disappointing results may trigger sector-specific weakness.

Source ; https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/sp-500-nasdaq-futures-slip-as-investors-eye-sk-hynix-listing-middle-east-risks-4785654

Dow Jones

Gold

 Renewed Middle East tensions scare bulls away.

Gold lost its bullish momentum after rising more than 2% in the previous week and registered weekly losses as investors reacted to a clear re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. July inflation data from the United States and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh could drive XAUUSD’s action in the near term. After posting small losses on Monday, Gold came under renewed bearish pressure early Tuesday as tensions in the Middle East escalated once again. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly attacked a commercial ship sailing near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, and US President Donald Trump told reporters that the US would either reach a deal or "finish the job." Later in the day, the US announced that it revoked the license that permitted Iran to sell crude Oil until August 21 and reimposed sanctions, and the US military launched retaliatory strikes against Iranian air defenses and drone launch sites. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose more than 5% on the day, while Gold lost about 1.5% and continued to push lower on Wednesday. While speaking to reporters at the NATO summit on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said that the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran was over and threatened to hit Iran again. Trump further added that he wasn’t sure if the deal “will stick” and that they could take over Kharg Island. Gold extended its slide into a third consecutive day and closed in negative territory. Although the US and Iran continued to exchange strikes early Thursday, the US Dollar lost its strength and allowed XAUUSD to stage a rebound. The bullish action seen in Wall Street’s main indexes pointed to an improving risk mood in the second half of the day and made it difficult for the USD to find demand. Furthermore, the US and Iran stopped launching strikes late Thursday, and citing a US official, Al Jazeera reported that Washington remains committed to diplomacy to find a resolution and added that technical talks continue. Gold rose more than 1% on Thursday and erased a portion of its weekly losses before stabilizing at around $4,100 on Friday. Gold investors await Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony . The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the Consumer Price Index data for June on Tuesday. Investors expect the monthly CPI to decline by 0.1% following the 0.5% increase reported in May. A positive print could feed into inflation fears and make it difficult for XAU/USD to keep its footing. Conversely, printing at or below the market forecast could have the opposite effect on the pair. Nevertheless, the market reaction to inflation data could remain short-lived, with investors refraining from committing to large positions ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. Fed Chair Warsh will deliver a prepared speech and respond to questions before the US House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and will do the same before the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on Wednesday. Gold traded in a volatile range last week as investors balanced stronger U.S. economic data against ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. The precious metal experienced several sharp intraday swings, reflecting changing sentiment around interest rates, Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar. The primary source of pressure on gold came from the continued resilience of the U.S. economy. Employment figures, consumer spending data, and business activity indicators all suggested that economic growth remains relatively strong despite elevated borrowing costs. This reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer, supporting U.S. Treasury yields and reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. Federal Reserve officials also maintained a cautious tone, emphasizing that inflation has eased but remains above the central bank’s long-term target. Their data-dependent approach strengthened the U.S. dollar during several sessions, creating additional headwinds for bullion. Despite these challenges, gold continued to receive support from its traditional safe- haven role. Periodic geopolitical tensions, concerns about global economic growth, and occasional weakness in equity markets encouraged investors to seek defensive assets. These risk-off flows helped limit downside pressure whenever prices approached key support levels. Inflation expectations remained another important factor. Although inflation has moderated significantly from previous highs, many investors continue to view gold as a long-term hedge against persistent price pressures and economic uncertainty. Central bank buying and ongoing demand from long-term investors also provided underlying support for the market. From a technical perspective, gold spent much of the week consolidating after its recent advance. Buyers defended important support zones, while resistance near recent highs attracted profit-taking. The broader medium-term structure remained constructive, with higher lows continuing to support the longer-term bullish trend. By the end of the week, gold closed with a relatively balanced tone. Safe-haven demand and long-term investment flows provided support, while higher Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar limited upside momentum. Overall, last week’s trading highlighted gold’s sensitivity to changes in interest rate expectations, inflation outlooks, and global risk sentiment .

The overall outlook for gold this week remains neutral to moderately bullish with expectations of elevated volatility. While stronger U.S. economic data and higher Treasury yields could temporarily pressure prices, continued geopolitical uncertainty, central bank demand, and expectations of future monetary easing continue to provide strong underlying support. If upcoming U.S. economic releases point to slowing growth or easing inflation, gold could resume its broader upward trend and test higher resistance levels. However, if data remains consistently strong and reinforces expectations for prolonged higher interest rates, the precious metal may experience additional consolidation or a short-term pullback before attempting another advance .

Source : https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-weekly-forecast-renewed-middle-east-tensions-scare-bulls-away-202607101506

GOLD

Crude Oil

Surge as US-Iran conflict keeps Hormuz supply fears alive.

C rude oil traded in a volatile range last week as investors assessed changing supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical developments, and global economic data. Prices fluctuated throughout the week, reacting to headlines related to OPEC+ production policy, U.S. inventory reports, and expectations for future energy demand. One of the primary drivers of market sentiment was continued focus on global supply conditions. Investors closely monitored output levels among major oil-producing nations, with expectations that OPEC+ members would continue prioritizing market stability through disciplined production management. The possibility of extended production limits helped ease concerns about excess supply and provided a supportive backdrop for crude prices. Geopolitical developments also remained a significant influence. Ongoing tensions in key oil-producing regions kept traders alert to the possibility of supply disruptions, maintaining a risk premium in the market even though no major interruption to global exports occurred during the week. On the demand side, U.S. economic data continued to indicate relatively resilient fuel consumption. Strong labor market conditions, stable consumer spending, and continued expansion in the services sector supported expectations for steady transportation and industrial energy demand. However, concerns surrounding China’s economic recovery limited bullish enthusiasm, as mixed manufacturing and consumer data created uncertainty regarding future oil consumption growth. Weekly U.S. crude inventory data generated additional volatility. Inventory drawdowns generally supported prices by signaling healthy demand, while larger stock builds encouraged temporary profit-taking as traders reassessed short-term supply conditions. Currency markets also played a role in shaping price action. The U.S. dollar remained relatively firm during much of the week, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for international buyers and limiting some upside momentum in crude oil. From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil traded within a broad consolidation range after recent gains. Buyers defended key support areas during pullbacks, while resistance near recent highs attracted selling pressure from short-term traders. Despite intraday volatility, the broader market structure remained constructive. By the end of the week, crude oil finished with a moderately positive tone, supported by disciplined production policies, resilient U.S. demand, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Overall, last week’s performance highlighted the balance between supply-side support and demand-related uncertainty . Looking ahead, crude oil is expected to remain highly sensitive to economic data, OPEC+ developments, U.S. inventory reports, and geopolitical events. Volatility is likely to remain elevated as investors evaluate the outlook for both supply and demand. One of the main areas of focus will be any new developments regarding OPEC+ production policy. Comments from major producing countries concerning future output targets or compliance with existing agreements could significantly influence market sentiment. Any indication of tighter supply management would likely support higher prices, while signs of increasing production could weigh on the market. Demand expectations will remain equally important. Investors will closely monitor economic data from the United States, China, and Europe for clues regarding future energy consumption. Stronger economic growth generally supports transportation activity, industrial production, and fuel demand, while weaker data could revive concerns about slowing global consumption. China’s economic performance will remain a particularly important driver. Investors will analyze manufacturing activity, industrial production, retail sales, and government stimulus measures for signs that economic momentum is improving. Stronger Chinese demand could provide substantial support for crude prices. Weekly U.S. crude inventory data will once again serve as a major catalyst. A larger-than-expected drawdown would suggest healthy demand and potentially support further gains, while a significant inventory build could signal weaker consumption and trigger short-term selling pressure. The direction of the U.S. dollar will also continue influencing commodity prices. A stronger dollar typically creates headwinds for crude oil, while a weaker dollar generally supports demand for dollar-denominated commodities.

The overall outlook for WTI crude oil this week remains moderately bullish with expectations of elevated volatility. Continued supply discipline from major producers, resilient U.S. energy demand, and persistent geopolitical risks are likely to provide underlying support for prices. If economic data from major economies points to improving growth and U.S. crude inventories decline, oil prices could extend their recent gains and test higher resistance levels. Conversely, weaker demand indicators, rising inventories, or a stronger U.S. dollar may encourage temporary corrections before the broader trend resumes. Traders and investors should closely monitor this week’s economic releases, OPEC+ developments, inventory reports, U.S. dollar movements, and geopolitical headlines, as these factors are likely to determine crude oil’s next directional move .

Source : https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-jump-over-3-after-iran-declares-strait-of-hormuz-closed-4787390

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MAJOR DATA RELEASED DURING LAST WEEK

MAJOR DATA COMING OUT THIS WEEK (Time zone GMT+3)

Disclaimer

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD):

MACD uses different exponential moving averages to generate buy and sell indicators. The lower pane of the chart shows two lines: a Differential Line and a Signal Line. The Differential Line is the difference between a short and long-period exponential moving average, typically 12 and 26 periods. The Signal Line is typically a 9-period exponential moving average. When the DL crosses the SL from above, a sell indicator is generated, and when it crosses from below a buy signal is generated.

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

This is a momentum indicator that measures a security's price in relation to itself. The lower pane of the chart shows a line that fluctuates on a scale of 0 to 100. Typically buy signals are generated at 30 and sell signals are generated at 70. If the line breaks 30, the security is oversold, and a reversal is imminent. If the line breaks 70, it is overbought and is due for a downward correction.

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