Market analysis

Date: Monday 2nd of March 2026

EUR/USD : Under pressure as the Dollar reclaims momentum .

GBP/USD : Pound tests 1.3450 support ahead of key US jobs data .

USD/JPY : Yen gives back half of early gains against USD ahead of US PPI data .

Dow Jones : Posts worst month since March amid geopolitics, trade, and AI fear .

Gold : Buyers look to retain control as focus shifts to key US data .

Crude Oil : OPEC+ eyes aggressive production hike following Israeli strike on Tehran.

EUR/USD

Under pressure the Dollar reclaims momentum.

EUR/USD is still struggling to find real traction. The pair has tried to stabilize, but momentum keeps fading, leaving the door open to further weakness. If sellers manage a convincing break below the monthly floor near 1.1740, the spotlight will quickly shift to the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). By the end of the week, EUR/USD is nursing only marginal gains. The 1.1800 barrier remains stubbornly out of reach, and that inability to break higher tells its own story. The choppy price action fits the broader mood across global markets. There has been no clear direction, just a steady digestion of last week’s US Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s global tariffs. Add renewed trade uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Washington and Tehran back in a verbal standoff, and it is hardly surprising that conviction has been limited . In this environment, assets have been drifting rather than trending. The European Central Bank also left rates unchanged, in a unanimous and widely anticipated decision . The message was disciplined. Inflation is still projected to return to the 2% target over the medium term. Wage pressures are stabilising, services inflation remains under close scrutiny, and a modest dip in prices is expected in 2026. The key moment this week was Christine Lagarde’s testimony before the European Parliament. She sounded confident but cautious. Inflation, she insisted, is on track to return to 2% over time, with food price pressures gradually easing into 2026. She highlighted support from solid wage growth, a resilient labour market and firmer investment. At the same time, she reiterated that the ECB monitors the euro but does not target it and noted there are no visible signs yet of AI-driven job losses. The takeaway is straightforward: the ECB feels policy is well calibrated but remains fully data dependent and ready to adjust if needed. On the inflation front, preliminary figures from Germany point to Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth of 1.9% YoY in February, slightly below the 2.0% recorded at the start of the year. A gentle cooling, but nothing dramatic. Positioning data tell an interesting story. Speculative net longs in the euro have climbed to their highest levels since 2020. At the same time, short positions have also risen sharply.  When both sides increase exposure simultaneously, it signals conviction and tension, not a one-way bet. Open interest remains elevated. This is not a thin, illiquid move. It is a proper battle. Net positioning still favours the euro overall, but the build-up in opposing shorts makes the upside more fragile and highly sensitive to incoming macro surprises . I n the short-term horizon, the US Dollar continues to set the tone. Trade headlines and geopolitical developments are adding noise, and the relative quiet from the ECB is doing little to shift the balance. The risk scenario is clear. If the Fed maintains its cautious stance and US data remain firm, the Dollar keeps a natural floor.

A decisive break below the 200-day SMA would materially weaken the technical picture and increase the probability of a deeper correction. Right now, EUR/USD is being driven far more by Washington than by Frankfurt. Until the Fed’s 2026 rate path becomes clearer, or the euro area delivers a more convincing cyclical upswing, rallies are likely to remain measured and vulnerable. For now, it remains Dollar first, Euro second.

Source : https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-fed-uncertainty-and-geopolitical-turmoil-behind-dull-trading-202601161538

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

Pound tests 1.3450 support ahead of key US jobs data

The Pound Sterling (GBP) entered a bearish consolidation phase against the US Dollar (USD), after having tested critical support near the 1.3450 level on several occasions. GBP/USD hovered close to the monthly low of 1.3434 reached a week ago, closing almost unchanged on a weekly basis. The listless performance in the major could be attributed to the USD’s subdued trading action and a largely risk-averse market environment. Despite lingering geopolitical risks surrounding the United States (US) and Iran over the nuclear program, the Greenback failed to capitalize on the safe haven flows as US President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policy outweighed those concerns. The US Supreme Court last Friday rejected Trump’s emergency tariffs, prompting the President to announce a new 10% rate on the rest of the world, only to then lift it to 15%. The move rekindled market concerns over a highly uncertain and volatile environment, acting as a headwind for the US assets, including the USD. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday that the US tariff rate for some countries will rise to 15% or higher from the newly imposed 10%, without revealing any further specific details. On the US-Iran geopolitical development, Oman's Foreign Minister, who was also involved in the third round of Geneva talks on Thursday, noted: "We have concluded the day with significant progress in the negotiations between the United States and Iran. We will resume them soon, after consultations in the respective capitals. Technical-level talks will take place next week.” A lack of breakthrough in the nuclear talks kept the door open for an American strike on Tehran in the coming days, undermining risk sentiment and the high-beta currency, the Pound Sterling. The British Pound also faced headwinds from increased expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will lower interest rates as early as May, against the odds for a Fed rate cut in the second half of the year. “During his testimony before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee earlier this week, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey signalled that there is scope for rate cuts amid the expectation that inflation will return to the 2% target,” Street’s Analyst Haresh Menghini said.  Additionally, the UK political drama also cast a dark cloud on the pair’s outlook going forward. Amid allegations of illegal voting and a tight contest between Labour, Reform UK, and the Green Party candidates, the Green Party won the Gorton and Denton by-election on Friday - their first ever Westminster by-election win. The UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party suffered an embarrassing election defeat. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that Producer inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Producer Price Index (PPI), declined to 2.9% on a yearly basis in January from 3% in December. This reading came in above the market expectation of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 0.5% following the 0.4% increase (revised from 0.5%) recorded in December. The USD held its ground heading into the weekend and didn't allow GBP/USD to gain traction. Another data-light week in the United Kingdom (UK), and hence, all eyes will remain on the US docket, with employment data due to trickle in from Wednesday. On Monday, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data will be reported, while a couple of BoE policymakers are scheduled to speak. The UK government is set to publish its Annual Budget report on Tuesday as the US calendar remains data dry. Wednesday will feature the US ADP monthly Employment Change report, followed by the US ISM Services PMI data. The weekly Jobless Claims from the US will be released on Thursday, alongside the quarterly preliminary Unit Labor Costs Index. The all-important US labour market report will be released on Friday. The headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure and the Unemployment Rate will be closely scrutinized for gauging the health of the US jobs market and future Fed rate cuts. The data will rock the USD, heavily influencing the GBP/USD pair. Apart from the statistics and central bank talks, the US-Iran negotiations on the nuclear deal will be awaited in the upcoming week.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-pound-sterling-remains-under-pressure-against-us-dollar-202601161420

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

Yen gives back half of early gains against USD ahead of US PPI data.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) surrenders half of its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The USD/JPY pair rebounds to near 155.90 as the JPY falls back but is still 0.15% down. Japanese currency struggles to hold gains amid growing concerns over speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest  rates  in the near term. Hawkish BoJ prospects have come under pressure, following the entry of two new officials into the central bank’s nine-member board, and signs of easing price pressures. Earlier  this week, the administration announced the nomination of two members: Koichiro Asada and Ayano Sato for the BoJ’s board, at times when a report from Mainichi daily showed that Japan's Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi’s comments in meeting with Governor Kazuo Ueda on February 16 were in contrast to tightening monetary policy in the near term. Earlier in the day, the data showed that Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) ex. Fresh Food growth cooled down to 1.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2% in January but remained higher than estimates of 1.7%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades broadly calm ahead of the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 97.75. Investors will pay close attention to the US PPI data to get fresh cues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

Source : https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-drops-to-15800-on-yen-strength-intervention-fears-202601161713

USD/JPY

Dow Jones

Posts worst month since March amid geopolitics, trade, and AI fear.

U.S. stocks ended in the red on Friday, as continued weakness in the technology sector along with hotter-than-expected producer inflation data weighed on sentiment. Wall Street also slid to its worst monthly performance since March last year.

The benchmark S&P 500 index fell 0.5% to close at 6,877.36 points, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite shed 0.9% to settle at 22,668.21 points, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.1% to conclude at 48,977.18 points. Nvidia, the most valuable company in the world, was the biggest weight on Wall Street on Thursday, sliding over 5% despite logging bumper quarterly earnings.  Questions over more shareholder returns, especially after a sharp increase in the company’s cash balance, weighed on the stock, as did some profit-taking after a strong run-up ahead of its earnings. The benchmark S&P 500 index notched its worst monthly performance since March last year. For February, the gauge was down 0.9%. The Nasdaq also achieved the same milestone, down 3.4% for the month. The Dow managed to eke out a monthly gain of 0.2 %. It’s been a turbulent February for Wall Street, which historically has been a weak month for markets. Sentiment came under pressure from a host of drivers such as geopolitical tensions, trade developments, and a changing perspective about artificial intelligence and its disruptive capabilities. “Throughout the month, two bearish AI themes have weighed on investors. The first was the AI disruption risk of software and other services. The second is the hyperscale’s cannibalizing their free cash flow for the sake of AI capex," Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at Jones Trading, told Investing.com. "Neither of these risks appears ready to fade any time soon," he added. Still, according to Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, the month also showed a broadening, as investors rotated out of technology stocks and into other sectors and areas of the market. "Stubborn inflation remains a key risk to future interest rate movements throughout the remainder of the year, underscoring the delicate balance of the economy and markets," he said. “That said, we continue to believe that AI is poised to increase the productivity and profitability of a broad swath of companies in the coming years, much like the internet did at the turn of the century. Equity markets are poised to pivot from a heavy dependence on AI and the tech sector to a more balanced showing from a broader set of companies benefiting from the improving health and diversification of the overall economy," Schutte added. On the economic calendar, January’s producer price index ticked up 0.5% M/M and 2.9% Y/Y, both higher than the consensus figures of 0.3% and 2.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, core PPI, which excludes energy and food prices, rose 0.8% M/M and 3.6% Y/Y, compared to estimates of 0.3% and 3.0%.The Producer Price Index (PPI) doesn’t typically get the attention that the CPI or PCE inflation readings get, but this morning the PPI was higher than expected across the board and that could upset markets," Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said. “For the past month the market has been worried about AI disruption and its impact on the labour market, so inflation hasn’t been top of mind, but this morning’s inflation readings could give the Fed another reason to be more patient with rate cuts and wait until the second half of the year before making any changes," Zaccarelli added. JPMorgan sees the latest PPI data slightly firming its estimate for the January personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - widely seen as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. "Today’s PPI report nudged up our core PCE deflator tracking estimate for January to 0.42% m/m, from 0.39% after the January CPI report," JPMorgan’s Michael Hanson said.

"While there may be some Fed officials willing to write off this recent firming as a combination of residual seasonality and temporary tariff effects, we suspect it will reinforce the caution and continued concerns about sticky above-target inflation that a majority of FOMC participants expressed in the most recent minutes," Hanson added.

Microsoft backed OpenAI on Friday announced a $110 billion investment round, the largest ever for a private tech company. The round includes $30 billion from SoftBank, $30 billion from Nvidia, and $50 billion from Amazon . The investment gives OpenAI a pre-money valuation of $730 billion. “AI demand is surging across consumers, developers, and businesses. Meeting that demand and providing everyone access to our products requires three things: compute, distribution, and capital," OpenAI said in a statement. “We’ve also signed a strategic partnership with Amazon and secured next generation inference compute with NVIDIA. Additional financial investors are expected to join as the round progresses," the company added. 

Source : https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-stock-futures-fall-after-nvidia-dents-wall-st-netflix-rallies-4530329

Dow Jones

Gold

Buyers look to retain control as focus shifts to key US data

Gold (XAU/USD) gained traction and climbed above $5,200, ending the fourth consecutive week in positive territory. The next round of US-Iran talks and crucial macroeconomic data releases from the US will be watched closely by market participants in the short term.

Gold benefits from retreating US yields . Gold opened with a bullish gap and registered daily gains on Monday as investors reacted to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s response to the Supreme Court’s ruling against his administration's tariffs on Friday. Trump vowed that they would impose even bigger levies using alternative legal frameworks, specifically citing national security conventions under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Over the weekend, the US president said that he will raise global tariffs to 15% from 10% "effective immediately" and warned that additional ones would follow. After extending its rally to a fresh February-high above $5,200 in the early trading hours of the Asian session on Tuesday, Gold reversed its direction and closed the day in the red as the negative impact of the US trade policy uncertainty on risk mood faded away. While delivering his State of the Union speech in the early trading hours of the Asian session on Wednesday, Trump noted that there is no inflation and said he sees "tremendous growth," pointing to tariffs as one of the main reasons behind the economic turnaround. Trump further added that almost all trading partners want to keep the trade deals they already made, despite the Supreme Court's ruling. As Wall Street’s main indexes shot higher midweek, the US Dollar (USD) struggled to find demand and allowed XAU/USD to register daily gains. Gold struggled to make a decisive move in either direction on Thursday. In the absence of high-impact economic data releases, retreating US Treasury bond yields helped XAU/USD hold its ground. The benchmark 10-year US bond yield declined below 4% for the first time since late November. On the flip side, the precious metal’s upside remained capped early Friday as geopolitical tensions eased after news outlets reported that the US and Iran made significant progress during Thursday’s nuclear talks in Geneva. In the second half of the day on Friday, however, re-escalating geopolitical tensions helped gold climb above $5,200. Citing an email from the US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, NBC News reported that the diplomat has advised nonessential staff members to leave the country immediately. “He also urged anyone intending to leave to go ahead and book flights, citing the likely surge in demand out of Israel after the embassy's move,” the outlet wrote. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will publish the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report for February. In case the headline PMI comes in below 50 and points to a contraction in the manufacturing sector’s business activity, the immediate reaction could hurt the USD and open the door for a leg higher in XAU/USD . The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will release the private sector employment figures for February on Wednesday, followed by the ISM Services PMI. A weaker-than-expected print in the ADP Employment Change data and a decline below 50 in the ISM Services Employment Index could cause investors to prepare for a disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday and trigger a USD selloff. Conversely, XAU/USD could come under bearish pressure if the ADP numbers and the PMI report point to healthy labour market conditions. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) official employment report will feature the Unemployment Rate, NFP and wage inflation figures for February on Friday. in January, NFP rose by 130K, compared to the market expectation of 70K, and the Unemployment Rate declined to 4.3% from 4.4% in December. An NFP increase of 100K or more could ease concerns over the labour market slack and boost the USD. The CME Group Fed Watch Tool currently shows that markets virtually see no chance of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in March and price in about an 80% probability of one more policy hold in April. This positioning suggests that the USD has some room on the upside in case investors see a strong employment data as a confirmation of steady policy at least until June. In this scenario, US Treasury bond yields could recover sharply and cause XAU/USD to move south heading into the weekend. On the other hand, a disappointing NFP print at or below 50K could cause market participants to reconsider the possibility of a rate cut in April and pave the way for a bullish XAU/USD action in the American session on Friday. Ing’s Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey argues that structural drivers are likely to support gold prices in the near term. "As long as geopolitical fragmentation persists, a meaningful reversal in central bank gold demand looks unlikely. This structural floor continues to underpin the market at elevated price levels,” Manthey explains, while adding, "Our US economist expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in the second quarter, with policy becoming incrementally less restrictive over the coming quarters. Even a modest easing cycle would be supportive for Gold, lowering real yields and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non yielding assets."

Investors will also pay close attention to headlines from the next round of US-Iran negotiations in Vienna. US Vice President JD Vance said late Thursday that there is “no chance” the US will be involved in a prolonged war in the Middle East but added that Trump was still weighing targeted military strikes against Iran. If the US strikes Iran to force an agreement, escalating geopolitical tensions could support gold prices. On the flip side, a nuclear deal without any military action could have the opposite impact on the precious metal’s performance. 

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-weekly-forecast-falling-us-yields-geopolitics-help-xau-usd-hold-ground-202602271605

GOLD

Crude Oil

OPEC+ eyes aggressive production hike following Israeli strike on Tehran.

The global energy landscape shifted violently on Saturday following Israel’s pre-emptive military strike against Iran. In response to the escalating "war risk," OPEC+ delegates confirmed to Bloomberg that the group will now consider a larger Brent Oil Futures supply increase during their emergency meeting this Sunday. This pivot aims to provide a liquidity buffer for global markets. The specter of a wider regional war currently threatens the world’s most vital oil transit routes. The strike, reported by Reuters, involved explosions across Tehran. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz characterized the move as a necessary operation to dismantle Iranian nuclear and missile infrastructure. This military action effectively shatters a brief window of diplomacy that opened in February. It also raises the immediate risk of Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases or energy facilities in neighbouring Gulf states; a threat Tehran has repeatedly publicized. Before this morning’s headlines, the Saudi-led alliance was expected to resume only modest production increases starting in April. However, with the confrontation between Israel and Iran now in a "hot" phase, the group is under pressure to prevent a price spike. Such a spike could derail global economic growth. The primary concern for traders is no longer just the "threat" of conflict, but the potential for a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or damage to regional processing plants.

By signaling a willingness to flood the market with additional barrels, OPEC+ is attempting to reduce energy prices from the immediate geopolitical chaos. Investors now await the formal Sunday announcement to see if the proposed "mega-hike" will be enough to settle a market currently on a knife-edge.

Source : https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/opec-eyes-aggressive-production-hike-following-israeli-strike-on-tehran-4533314

C L

MAJOR DATA RELEASED DURING LAST WEEK

MAJOR DATA COMING OUT THIS WEEK (Time zone GMT+2)

Disclaimer

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD):

MACD uses different exponential moving averages to generate buy and sell indicators. The lower pane of the chart shows two lines: a Differential Line and a Signal Line. The Differential Line is the difference between a short and long-period exponential moving average, typically 12 and 26 periods. The Signal Line is typically a 9-period exponential moving average. When the DL crosses the SL from above, a sell indicator is generated, and when it crosses from below a buy signal is generated.

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

This is a momentum indicator that measures a security's price in relation to itself. The lower pane of the chart shows a line that fluctuates on a scale of 0 to 100. Typically buy signals are generated at 30 and sell signals are generated at 70. If the line breaks 30, the security is oversold, and a reversal is imminent. If the line breaks 70, it is overbought and is due for a downward correction.

This report is provided by our experts in the research group for information purposes only and is deemed reliable but provides no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. Trust Capital S.A.L. will not be accountable for any decision based on the contents of this report. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment or service. Trust Capital S.A.L. has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not been independently verified. Trust Capital S.A.L. make s no guarantees, representations or warranties and accept no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion herein are subject to change without notice.

 © Copyright, Trust Capital S.A.L.

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Trust Capital S.A.L.